To those who believed in economic assumptions and Form 5/7 economics textbook theories. Let's listen to psychologists.
「市場理性」經濟假設遭質疑
(明報)9月20日 星期六 05:10
【明報專訊】經濟學理論的基本假設之一是，投資者基於理性而作出投資行為。但華爾街金融海嘯引發的全球股災，卻令「市場理性」的假設受到挑戰和質疑。有學者便認為，資產泡沫的形成和爆破，一大驅動力就是投資者的非理性，諸如羊群心理甚至狂躁荷爾蒙等因素。
狂躁荷爾蒙「放大」市場波幅
「經濟學理論常認為，市場價格的形成，取決於人們的理性及信息完全。」英國 心理學家塔克特說，「這是完全錯誤的，操作市場的是人，而基於人意識的決定通常是膚淺的。」行為學專家安德烈森直指，部分非理性投資行為是羊群心態所致：一開始，人們不敢輕易入市，但看到鄰居或同事買股票賺到錢，他們也開始小心入市，並從不斷上漲的股價而獲得信心。伴隨收益增多，他們愈加得意忘形；當市場泡沫開始破裂時，投資者仍覺得無所謂，直到股價大瀉，沽盤增多，他們就開始恐慌性拋售。安德烈森說：「受他人影響，許多人開始短期投機，只看股票表面價格，忽視內在價值。」
劍橋 大學行為學專家科茨更認為，市場波動幅度被狂躁荷爾蒙放大。科茨曾在高盛和德銀工作，2000年科網股熱潮時，他驚見男交易員表現出「典型症狀的躁狂症」，即認為自己無所不能、想法狂熱和減少睡眠。科茨於是展開研究，從倫敦 證交所隨機選了17名男交易員，每天兩次提取他們的唾液樣本，分析兩種荷爾蒙的變化。一種是與男性侵略行為和性行為有關的睾丸素，另一種是皮質醇，即會指示身體如何應付危急環境（選擇戰鬥下去或走為上着）的反應，結果發現當交易員賺錢時，睾丸素就會上升，但損手或市場波動時，皮質醇會急劇增加。不少針對動物的研究已顯示，長遠來說，荷爾蒙偏高會損害判斷力，並激發冒險行為。
就連熟諳金融市場規則的投行高層也未必理性。去年，塔克特曾訪查全球數十位投行基金經理，發現他們在面對必須交出成績的巨大壓力下，常傾向無視風險因素，並不斷說服自己正掌握着別人並不知曉的關鍵。塔克特說：「儘管很多人說知道牛市不可能永遠持續下去，他們還是繼續冒險。」
法新社
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
一個台灣人移居澳洲後的感想
Is Australia as good as I expect? maybe I can tell one year later. Remind me to give a reply to this post.
轉貼一個台灣人移居澳洲後的感想
http://www.helloanz.org/index.php?showtopic=16233
來到澳洲生活也有近五年，如果從實際開始生根算起，也將近三年的時間，這期間碰到許許多多台灣人或者台灣學生問著同樣的問題：台灣與澳洲哪個地方比較好？其實這問題並沒有答案，因為各個地方都有他的優缺點，絕對沒有一個地方是完美的，也絕對沒有一個地方是毫無優點，唯一可以提供的答案，只有是不是適合自己而已。
一般人來到澳洲往往是以觀光客的角色駐足欣賞澳洲，自然在旅行的角度下，美好的一面自然佔去大部分時間，也因此很容易讓來澳洲旅遊的觀光客有著完美澳洲的錯誤認知。就算今天有人以不同身分例如：打工度假、國際學生的簽證來澳洲居住，縱使有長達一年的時間，也將因為身分的不同，接觸環境的不同，對澳洲產生不同的偏頗概念。在這各式各樣情況背景下所產生的結論，自然也就缺乏其全面性的公正，澳洲真的是美好的嗎？
在台灣，中文是我們的母語，環境是我們從小到大接觸的，思考邏輯是從小學校建立的，自然而然我們可以看到台灣最細微的角落、翻查城市邊緣的黑暗，所以我們的眼中，台灣絕對有著他的黑暗面，在澳洲，英文是我們的第二語言，週遭環境把我們當成是陌生過客，對城市我們能看到的多是表面絢爛的外衣，在文化、思考邏輯上有著截然不同的路線，也因此接受到的訊息往往是重要以及明顯的，細微的角落通常只能選擇任其散落，這樣的情況下，澳洲自然會給人美好的感覺，畢竟澳洲有著寬廣的土地，豐富的資源，健全的社會制度，悠閒自由的生活態度，而這些，剛好都是忙碌的台灣人，在被工作壓榨之餘心中夢想的天堂。
澳洲的這些生活模式看似美好，問題是當一個台灣人或者是外來移入者，是否就真的可以享受這樣的生活？澳洲的薪資水準雖然高，但是物價也相對的高，澳洲人也如同台灣人一樣必須背負二三十年的貸款來購買他自己的第一棟房子，澳洲的大學畢業生也如同台灣一樣，必須接受一個可能還無法支應生活的年薪，多少的澳洲人無法擁有一個全職的工作，必須兼職二到三個工作才能維持生活，而澳洲健全的社會福利背後，卻是建立在一個高所得稅的基礎上，而這些情況對一個外來移入者，更是嚴酷以及艱辛。首先必須要改變自己的邏輯思考，藉此才能接觸澳洲當地的文化，進而讓食衣住行進入軌道，再來是重新建立人際關係網路，否則只是孤獨，我想這生活也難以長久，而最後也是最難的就是找到方式讓自己能夠生存下去，然後才有資格討論別人眼中美好的生活。
對一個台灣長大的人來說，澳洲生活可以說是一個截然不同的經驗，雖然不用把工作或者公司當作家而無止盡的加班，但是相對也等於晚上五點之後很多城市當中的生活機能也隨停頓。當享受著優閒的生活態度，也代表著許多事情在申請以及處理的過程上也是同樣的慵懶。數著比台灣高上許多的薪水時，也同樣表示自己在生活上的支出，無形中也支付著別人高人一等的年薪，在享受著澳洲政府提供的完善公共設施已及社會福利時，這也只是反映著可以高達47.5% 的所得稅支付，當這些組合起來，澳洲真的仍然美好？當有得必有失的前提下，適合反而成為重要的條件，不同的生活模式自然需要不同的心態去面對，而自己的心是不是符合這樣的環境，這才是澳洲與台灣最主要的差異。
從小到大認識的朋友、同學、親戚，是不是願意割捨，然後重新耗費五年到十年的時間重新建立，原本夜夜笙歌的KTV 生活是不是能夠轉變成清晨起床的運動，每天習慣上館子的三餐是不是準備通通改在自家廚房中由自己親手動手，本來習慣到公園賞花漫步，是不是準備由自己親自栽種、除草、割草維持，原本習慣每天掛在嘴邊的台灣國語，是不是能轉換成澳洲口音的ABCD，原本街頭巷尾就有的早餐店變成要到華人聚集的區域才能看到，以上這些都只是來到澳洲後必須改變的非常一小部份，其實只要想想平日生活流程中的點點滴滴，通通都要重新建立以及適應，而自己是不是有辦法適應這樣的轉變以及過程，我想能不能融入澳洲生活，澳洲會不會是自己的天堂，答案也就明顯可見了。
知道許多人因為不適應而在辛苦多年後回台灣去，也知道許多人嚮往著這新生活而極力追求著，其實人在哪個國度都是相同的，想要好生活，就先要能生存下來，而這生存的過程，辛苦程度我想沒有任何一個地方是輕鬆的吧。
轉貼一個台灣人移居澳洲後的感想
http://www.helloanz.org/index.php?showtopic=16233
來到澳洲生活也有近五年，如果從實際開始生根算起，也將近三年的時間，這期間碰到許許多多台灣人或者台灣學生問著同樣的問題：台灣與澳洲哪個地方比較好？其實這問題並沒有答案，因為各個地方都有他的優缺點，絕對沒有一個地方是完美的，也絕對沒有一個地方是毫無優點，唯一可以提供的答案，只有是不是適合自己而已。
一般人來到澳洲往往是以觀光客的角色駐足欣賞澳洲，自然在旅行的角度下，美好的一面自然佔去大部分時間，也因此很容易讓來澳洲旅遊的觀光客有著完美澳洲的錯誤認知。就算今天有人以不同身分例如：打工度假、國際學生的簽證來澳洲居住，縱使有長達一年的時間，也將因為身分的不同，接觸環境的不同，對澳洲產生不同的偏頗概念。在這各式各樣情況背景下所產生的結論，自然也就缺乏其全面性的公正，澳洲真的是美好的嗎？
在台灣，中文是我們的母語，環境是我們從小到大接觸的，思考邏輯是從小學校建立的，自然而然我們可以看到台灣最細微的角落、翻查城市邊緣的黑暗，所以我們的眼中，台灣絕對有著他的黑暗面，在澳洲，英文是我們的第二語言，週遭環境把我們當成是陌生過客，對城市我們能看到的多是表面絢爛的外衣，在文化、思考邏輯上有著截然不同的路線，也因此接受到的訊息往往是重要以及明顯的，細微的角落通常只能選擇任其散落，這樣的情況下，澳洲自然會給人美好的感覺，畢竟澳洲有著寬廣的土地，豐富的資源，健全的社會制度，悠閒自由的生活態度，而這些，剛好都是忙碌的台灣人，在被工作壓榨之餘心中夢想的天堂。
澳洲的這些生活模式看似美好，問題是當一個台灣人或者是外來移入者，是否就真的可以享受這樣的生活？澳洲的薪資水準雖然高，但是物價也相對的高，澳洲人也如同台灣人一樣必須背負二三十年的貸款來購買他自己的第一棟房子，澳洲的大學畢業生也如同台灣一樣，必須接受一個可能還無法支應生活的年薪，多少的澳洲人無法擁有一個全職的工作，必須兼職二到三個工作才能維持生活，而澳洲健全的社會福利背後，卻是建立在一個高所得稅的基礎上，而這些情況對一個外來移入者，更是嚴酷以及艱辛。首先必須要改變自己的邏輯思考，藉此才能接觸澳洲當地的文化，進而讓食衣住行進入軌道，再來是重新建立人際關係網路，否則只是孤獨，我想這生活也難以長久，而最後也是最難的就是找到方式讓自己能夠生存下去，然後才有資格討論別人眼中美好的生活。
對一個台灣長大的人來說，澳洲生活可以說是一個截然不同的經驗，雖然不用把工作或者公司當作家而無止盡的加班，但是相對也等於晚上五點之後很多城市當中的生活機能也隨停頓。當享受著優閒的生活態度，也代表著許多事情在申請以及處理的過程上也是同樣的慵懶。數著比台灣高上許多的薪水時，也同樣表示自己在生活上的支出，無形中也支付著別人高人一等的年薪，在享受著澳洲政府提供的完善公共設施已及社會福利時，這也只是反映著可以高達47.5% 的所得稅支付，當這些組合起來，澳洲真的仍然美好？當有得必有失的前提下，適合反而成為重要的條件，不同的生活模式自然需要不同的心態去面對，而自己的心是不是符合這樣的環境，這才是澳洲與台灣最主要的差異。
從小到大認識的朋友、同學、親戚，是不是願意割捨，然後重新耗費五年到十年的時間重新建立，原本夜夜笙歌的KTV 生活是不是能夠轉變成清晨起床的運動，每天習慣上館子的三餐是不是準備通通改在自家廚房中由自己親手動手，本來習慣到公園賞花漫步，是不是準備由自己親自栽種、除草、割草維持，原本習慣每天掛在嘴邊的台灣國語，是不是能轉換成澳洲口音的ABCD，原本街頭巷尾就有的早餐店變成要到華人聚集的區域才能看到，以上這些都只是來到澳洲後必須改變的非常一小部份，其實只要想想平日生活流程中的點點滴滴，通通都要重新建立以及適應，而自己是不是有辦法適應這樣的轉變以及過程，我想能不能融入澳洲生活，澳洲會不會是自己的天堂，答案也就明顯可見了。
知道許多人因為不適應而在辛苦多年後回台灣去，也知道許多人嚮往著這新生活而極力追求著，其實人在哪個國度都是相同的，想要好生活，就先要能生存下來，而這生存的過程，辛苦程度我想沒有任何一個地方是輕鬆的吧。
Monday, July 28, 2008
蔡子強﹕香港中產只講「着數」﹖
值得轉載的一篇文章，從文章看出作者是一個有良心、理智的香港人 (相比起那個所謂的香港良心Mrs. Anson Chan有過之而無不及)。
(註: 作者跟我一樣都係undergrad係中大讀BBA, 後來先轉做政策研究及評論)
蔡子強﹕香港中產只講「着數」﹖
(明報)7月24日 星期四 05:10
【明報專訊】最近，聽到剛赴美國 進修的一位朋友，所親身經歷的一個小故事。他說有天到理髮店理髮，剛巧理髮師也是移民到來的港人，便閒聊起上來，講到香港的種種熱鬧精彩時，朋友便好奇問對方，為何不回流香港，怎料對方卻說：「算了，我恐怕自己再也不能適應香港。」
理髮師舉例說，在美國，如果覺得顧客不太適合電髮，他會坦白告知，沒有人會埋怨你為舖頭「倒米」；相反，在香港，卻多半會被人罵作「有病」、故作清高。再舉個例，他也是讀書人，在美國，帶本書回理髮店看，是一件自然不過的事，沒有人會報以怪異目光；相反，在香港，卻多半會被看作「珍禽異獸」，被人視作「扮嘢」。
簡單來說，在香港，有原則、有價值、有堅持，會被人視作異類；相反，在彼岸，那才是一個較尊重「values」，較有「heart」的地方。所以，這位理髮師說，他都是選擇不回香港，他覺得自己在彼岸會生活得心安理得一點。
上周三，政府頒布了一系列在高通脹下，政府的紓解民困措施，不料，旋即被部分人士批評為偏重、討好基層，但卻忽略中產，開學津貼、綜援 、生果金、公屋租金等，統統無份，只有電費及外傭稅的寬減項目，才稍為惠及，中產再一次被犧牲。另有外傭僱主及中產人士，擬組織遊行，抗議政府漠視中產階級需要云云。
通脹哪個階層影響最大﹖
「中產階級稅就交得最多，但福利就攞得最少」，這是近年輿論中建構出來其中一個最有深遠影響的論述。其中一個最為推波助瀾的，就是愈來愈變得像campaign media的本地傳媒，每次政府「派糖」政策出台，傳媒都最愛攫取一些最具煽風點火效果的公眾sound bites，又或者起一些煽情的報章標題，例如中產「被開刀」，甚至「任人劏」這類語不驚人死不休的字眼。反而對於政策的來龍去脈，政策的合理性，卻着墨和探討甚少。今次一個典型例子便是外傭稅。
隨着政府寬免外傭稅兩年，向中產示好，除了因政策考慮不周而惹來不滿之外，也帶來應否還原回幾年前的情况，取消外傭稅的爭論，而且聲浪愈來愈兇，有報章甚至以頭版加以炒作。但大家卻忘記了，當年在徵收400元外傭稅時，也同時降低了外傭的最低工資400元，所以對於很多住戶來說，外傭稅變相是由外傭支付的。所以今次提出要還原、撤銷外傭稅時，又有幾多人為外傭說句公道話，建議同時還原、提高回外傭的最低工資呢﹖大家恍如失憶，不記得事件中外傭同時是stakeholders（持份者）。
於是，大家只會為自己那一份吵吵鬧鬧，卻不會把眼界擴展至其他人，看看整體上的合理性，看看什麼為之「公道」。
平心而論，在新一輪通脹威脅下，對草根的影響要算最大，因為現時通脹勢頭最猛的，要算是油價和糧食價格。油價太貴，中產可減少使用私家車，多用公共交通公具；但食物如罐頭、麵包、肉價、米價等飈升，可壓縮的空間則不大。大家都明白，菜籃子是草根生活開支的主要部分，對中產則不然。我們這類中產，每次去街市或超市買菜，最多感到有些「肉赤」，但仍未至於消費不起，但設身處地去想，即食麵一包由兩元升至四元；豆腐一磚由一元多升至三元多；罐頭由每罐幾元升至十多元；米價勁升了一倍 …… 一個月入幾千元的草根家庭，這就是「生活中難以承受之重」。再加上，經濟雖然復蘇，雖然中產很多都有人工加，但在全球化衝擊下，很多基層勞工面臨deskilling、工種外移、職位流失等的衝擊，薪水根本升不上去，令其情况更加雪上加霜。
在考慮稅收、公共資源的投放及配置時，如果每個人只考慮自己有無「着數」，自己那一份「夠唔夠大」，這樣只會把香港變成一個全無價值、全無人情味的民粹主義社會，這樣的一個社會將會十分脆弱和容易瓦解。
因此，我們考慮的，應該是更高的一些原則，例如社會價值，以及政策的理性（rationality）等。例如九七金融風暴時，因為利益飈升但樓價卻狂跌，政府推出紓解民困措施，選擇向中產傾斜，例如退稅、增設供樓免稅額等，便十分合理；相反，若要紓解通脹壓力，明白到通脹的勢頭在菜籃子最猛，草根在經濟復蘇中受惠最少，多照顧基層，這也是應有之義。
我相信這個世界是要講道理的，不能只講對自己有無「着數」，自己那一份「夠唔夠大」。在考慮公共政策，如紓解民困措施時，亦當如此。
對香港心存感恩
我自己出身低下階層家庭，父親是個船塢工人，一家三兄弟，如果沒有政府和社會的資助，根本無可能負擔得起讀大學，亦因而無可能通過教育改變命運，實現階級流動。我想這也是香港三四十歲中生代的普遍共同經驗。所以我一直對香港這塊土地，心存感恩。
如果當年的納稅人，也斤斤計較，是否「稅就有份交，福利就無份」，稅款是否流向與己不相干的低下階層之口袋，那麼我相信香港整整一個世代的人，將無法出現階級攀升和集體生活改善，經濟奇蹟和起飛可能也無從談起。
如果有多到世界各地遊歷、見識的朋友，相信不難感覺到，香港的治安、公共秩序、城市管理等，都是世界首屈一指的，身邊不少朋友也認定，香港是全球華人社會中，一個算是可以讓我們安身立命的好地方。只要你看看其他亞洲國家如印尼 及菲律賓 ，便知道幸福並不是必然。如果大家都不認為自己的社會是公義和合理，反而充斥着不忿、嫉妒，甚至是仇恨，一個社會是不可能安定與和諧的。建立一個公義的社會，便是稅款、公共資源投放及配置的其中一個主題，最終每個階層都能受惠，包括中產。
或許這番說話很刺耳，但我知道，自己不會出來參選，也沒有興趣做官，有些說話如果連我都不說，可能就更加沒有幾個人會說。所以還是冒着得罪很多人的危險，坦然道出——為了我所鍾愛和感恩的香港。
作者是中文大學政治與行政學系高級導師
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/080723/4/7bsb.html
(註: 作者跟我一樣都係undergrad係中大讀BBA, 後來先轉做政策研究及評論)
蔡子強﹕香港中產只講「着數」﹖
(明報)7月24日 星期四 05:10
【明報專訊】最近，聽到剛赴美國 進修的一位朋友，所親身經歷的一個小故事。他說有天到理髮店理髮，剛巧理髮師也是移民到來的港人，便閒聊起上來，講到香港的種種熱鬧精彩時，朋友便好奇問對方，為何不回流香港，怎料對方卻說：「算了，我恐怕自己再也不能適應香港。」
理髮師舉例說，在美國，如果覺得顧客不太適合電髮，他會坦白告知，沒有人會埋怨你為舖頭「倒米」；相反，在香港，卻多半會被人罵作「有病」、故作清高。再舉個例，他也是讀書人，在美國，帶本書回理髮店看，是一件自然不過的事，沒有人會報以怪異目光；相反，在香港，卻多半會被看作「珍禽異獸」，被人視作「扮嘢」。
簡單來說，在香港，有原則、有價值、有堅持，會被人視作異類；相反，在彼岸，那才是一個較尊重「values」，較有「heart」的地方。所以，這位理髮師說，他都是選擇不回香港，他覺得自己在彼岸會生活得心安理得一點。
上周三，政府頒布了一系列在高通脹下，政府的紓解民困措施，不料，旋即被部分人士批評為偏重、討好基層，但卻忽略中產，開學津貼、綜援 、生果金、公屋租金等，統統無份，只有電費及外傭稅的寬減項目，才稍為惠及，中產再一次被犧牲。另有外傭僱主及中產人士，擬組織遊行，抗議政府漠視中產階級需要云云。
通脹哪個階層影響最大﹖
「中產階級稅就交得最多，但福利就攞得最少」，這是近年輿論中建構出來其中一個最有深遠影響的論述。其中一個最為推波助瀾的，就是愈來愈變得像campaign media的本地傳媒，每次政府「派糖」政策出台，傳媒都最愛攫取一些最具煽風點火效果的公眾sound bites，又或者起一些煽情的報章標題，例如中產「被開刀」，甚至「任人劏」這類語不驚人死不休的字眼。反而對於政策的來龍去脈，政策的合理性，卻着墨和探討甚少。今次一個典型例子便是外傭稅。
隨着政府寬免外傭稅兩年，向中產示好，除了因政策考慮不周而惹來不滿之外，也帶來應否還原回幾年前的情况，取消外傭稅的爭論，而且聲浪愈來愈兇，有報章甚至以頭版加以炒作。但大家卻忘記了，當年在徵收400元外傭稅時，也同時降低了外傭的最低工資400元，所以對於很多住戶來說，外傭稅變相是由外傭支付的。所以今次提出要還原、撤銷外傭稅時，又有幾多人為外傭說句公道話，建議同時還原、提高回外傭的最低工資呢﹖大家恍如失憶，不記得事件中外傭同時是stakeholders（持份者）。
於是，大家只會為自己那一份吵吵鬧鬧，卻不會把眼界擴展至其他人，看看整體上的合理性，看看什麼為之「公道」。
平心而論，在新一輪通脹威脅下，對草根的影響要算最大，因為現時通脹勢頭最猛的，要算是油價和糧食價格。油價太貴，中產可減少使用私家車，多用公共交通公具；但食物如罐頭、麵包、肉價、米價等飈升，可壓縮的空間則不大。大家都明白，菜籃子是草根生活開支的主要部分，對中產則不然。我們這類中產，每次去街市或超市買菜，最多感到有些「肉赤」，但仍未至於消費不起，但設身處地去想，即食麵一包由兩元升至四元；豆腐一磚由一元多升至三元多；罐頭由每罐幾元升至十多元；米價勁升了一倍 …… 一個月入幾千元的草根家庭，這就是「生活中難以承受之重」。再加上，經濟雖然復蘇，雖然中產很多都有人工加，但在全球化衝擊下，很多基層勞工面臨deskilling、工種外移、職位流失等的衝擊，薪水根本升不上去，令其情况更加雪上加霜。
在考慮稅收、公共資源的投放及配置時，如果每個人只考慮自己有無「着數」，自己那一份「夠唔夠大」，這樣只會把香港變成一個全無價值、全無人情味的民粹主義社會，這樣的一個社會將會十分脆弱和容易瓦解。
因此，我們考慮的，應該是更高的一些原則，例如社會價值，以及政策的理性（rationality）等。例如九七金融風暴時，因為利益飈升但樓價卻狂跌，政府推出紓解民困措施，選擇向中產傾斜，例如退稅、增設供樓免稅額等，便十分合理；相反，若要紓解通脹壓力，明白到通脹的勢頭在菜籃子最猛，草根在經濟復蘇中受惠最少，多照顧基層，這也是應有之義。
我相信這個世界是要講道理的，不能只講對自己有無「着數」，自己那一份「夠唔夠大」。在考慮公共政策，如紓解民困措施時，亦當如此。
對香港心存感恩
我自己出身低下階層家庭，父親是個船塢工人，一家三兄弟，如果沒有政府和社會的資助，根本無可能負擔得起讀大學，亦因而無可能通過教育改變命運，實現階級流動。我想這也是香港三四十歲中生代的普遍共同經驗。所以我一直對香港這塊土地，心存感恩。
如果當年的納稅人，也斤斤計較，是否「稅就有份交，福利就無份」，稅款是否流向與己不相干的低下階層之口袋，那麼我相信香港整整一個世代的人，將無法出現階級攀升和集體生活改善，經濟奇蹟和起飛可能也無從談起。
如果有多到世界各地遊歷、見識的朋友，相信不難感覺到，香港的治安、公共秩序、城市管理等，都是世界首屈一指的，身邊不少朋友也認定，香港是全球華人社會中，一個算是可以讓我們安身立命的好地方。只要你看看其他亞洲國家如印尼 及菲律賓 ，便知道幸福並不是必然。如果大家都不認為自己的社會是公義和合理，反而充斥着不忿、嫉妒，甚至是仇恨，一個社會是不可能安定與和諧的。建立一個公義的社會，便是稅款、公共資源投放及配置的其中一個主題，最終每個階層都能受惠，包括中產。
或許這番說話很刺耳，但我知道，自己不會出來參選，也沒有興趣做官，有些說話如果連我都不說，可能就更加沒有幾個人會說。所以還是冒着得罪很多人的危險，坦然道出——為了我所鍾愛和感恩的香港。
作者是中文大學政治與行政學系高級導師
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/080723/4/7bsb.html
Friday, July 25, 2008
Monthly quote
quoted from Mark Sagoff's book (The Economy of the Earth, 2nd ed., 2008)
"as societies rise above the poverty level, goods are valued more for their social or cultural meaning than for their use; this meaning, moreover, is largely determined by their distribution" (p.76)
Distribution here means inter- and intra-generational equity. It also refers to the changees in status or identity after a redistribution of the good, like ownership of a rare product e.g. 'I'm not a plastic bag!'. So, one is altruistic and the other is self-interest, but both of them may be different from the 'utility' as economists defined. It is more likely related to the act itself, rather than the utility gains from the act. That's means that when societies pass through a certain threshold, the meanings of value change, and the old ways of interpretation fail.
"as societies rise above the poverty level, goods are valued more for their social or cultural meaning than for their use; this meaning, moreover, is largely determined by their distribution" (p.76)
Distribution here means inter- and intra-generational equity. It also refers to the changees in status or identity after a redistribution of the good, like ownership of a rare product e.g. 'I'm not a plastic bag!'. So, one is altruistic and the other is self-interest, but both of them may be different from the 'utility' as economists defined. It is more likely related to the act itself, rather than the utility gains from the act. That's means that when societies pass through a certain threshold, the meanings of value change, and the old ways of interpretation fail.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Maths-based environmental economics
This is a reply to someone in discussion forum who insisted that mathematics is very important if not central to economics and social science in general. I don't agree especially on the latter. Their academic mindsets are just too closed to be realistic. They forget the nature and purpose of economics as a social science, and just do maths for maths.
Link: http://www11.discuss.com.hk/viewthread.php?tid=7587344&extra=page%3D1&page=4
Env econ has a purpose of informing policy. Researchers commonly make use of many maths modelling and technical appraoches, like a 'must' in every publication. However, some people, including trained economists, considered this as source of problems rather than an advantage now (it's 'common' but flawed). They criticized the highly focused appraoch with maths has 'reduces the env problems to narrow technical issues and deliberately excludes a range of potential options and an interdisciplinary approch'.
For example, maths-based econ can hardly measure cultural-ethical value as it is non-marketed, slippery & not quite consistent to utilitartian theory. When assessing the value of fengshui forest 風水林, resource economists tend to look at productivity only, like the market value of timber and land which are measurable and more reliable (so, 'economically justifiable') and can be well fitted into maths-based techniques like CBA (cost-benefit analysis). However, this simply bypass those values (sort of cultural, 'religious' dimensions, like so called 龍脈, 風水山墳) that the local villages do care. Applying this econ etimate to project evaluation without taking such considerations may simply create conflict and may therefore be rejected by locals, green groups, and sometimes the government themselves. The equation looks good, but the number or symbol is narrowly defined given the nature of the issue.
Likewise, someone in World bank said it is economically justified to transfer all electronic waste to Africa. I suppose he can a make maths equation to show that this is efficient from econ perspective. However, you can imagine the justice and politics issue here. It is difficult to incorporate those value dimensions and issues that cannot be easily be precisely transferred as numbers in maths model, as I hv mentioned in my first post. If we strictly follow maths rules and stick to maths model as a policy basis, the result will be excluding some real-world issues that are really important to policy makers. This is the problem with hedonic pricing method, contingent valuation method (for valuing non-marketed goods) commonly used in env econ. The same problem applies to the Arctic energy resource, justice, politics,...and the list goes on. It is difficult to put these into equations - will u ask someone how much is your ethical belief?. Excluding these dimensions is a tradition of econ, but is a problem as well when the social aspirations change thru these years. That's why a renowned env economist said that env econ did not pay a key policy role - the maths-based, technical approaches are just too unrealistic to apply in real policy implementation. This view is supported by quite a number of economists in the field.
The flaw of the math-based env econ is then clear. By sticking to the orthrodox model they ignore those outside their discipline. They use maths, they make policy advice, but they ignore the linkage with other perspectives which are imcompatible to their mindsets. But env issues are complex and trans-disciplinary, exclusion of non-economic perspectives is just a ignorance of realities. Finally, policy may be misguided. And this partly contributes to the development of ecological economics, which takes philosophy, politics, economics, sociology...etc into account. If the mainstream economics is perfect, we don't need this.
In fact, in social science, there is a trend (actually a tradition) to move across disciplinary boundary. Sociology involves politics, econ is related to psycho, journalism to sociology and politics; geography almost covers all. And finally, all these are built upon philosophy. So, social scientists have no excuse to escape from other disciplines' inputs.
Link: http://www11.discuss.com.hk/viewthread.php?tid=7587344&extra=page%3D1&page=4
Env econ has a purpose of informing policy. Researchers commonly make use of many maths modelling and technical appraoches, like a 'must' in every publication. However, some people, including trained economists, considered this as source of problems rather than an advantage now (it's 'common' but flawed). They criticized the highly focused appraoch with maths has 'reduces the env problems to narrow technical issues and deliberately excludes a range of potential options and an interdisciplinary approch'.
For example, maths-based econ can hardly measure cultural-ethical value as it is non-marketed, slippery & not quite consistent to utilitartian theory. When assessing the value of fengshui forest 風水林, resource economists tend to look at productivity only, like the market value of timber and land which are measurable and more reliable (so, 'economically justifiable') and can be well fitted into maths-based techniques like CBA (cost-benefit analysis). However, this simply bypass those values (sort of cultural, 'religious' dimensions, like so called 龍脈, 風水山墳) that the local villages do care. Applying this econ etimate to project evaluation without taking such considerations may simply create conflict and may therefore be rejected by locals, green groups, and sometimes the government themselves. The equation looks good, but the number or symbol is narrowly defined given the nature of the issue.
Likewise, someone in World bank said it is economically justified to transfer all electronic waste to Africa. I suppose he can a make maths equation to show that this is efficient from econ perspective. However, you can imagine the justice and politics issue here. It is difficult to incorporate those value dimensions and issues that cannot be easily be precisely transferred as numbers in maths model, as I hv mentioned in my first post. If we strictly follow maths rules and stick to maths model as a policy basis, the result will be excluding some real-world issues that are really important to policy makers. This is the problem with hedonic pricing method, contingent valuation method (for valuing non-marketed goods) commonly used in env econ. The same problem applies to the Arctic energy resource, justice, politics,...and the list goes on. It is difficult to put these into equations - will u ask someone how much is your ethical belief?. Excluding these dimensions is a tradition of econ, but is a problem as well when the social aspirations change thru these years. That's why a renowned env economist said that env econ did not pay a key policy role - the maths-based, technical approaches are just too unrealistic to apply in real policy implementation. This view is supported by quite a number of economists in the field.
The flaw of the math-based env econ is then clear. By sticking to the orthrodox model they ignore those outside their discipline. They use maths, they make policy advice, but they ignore the linkage with other perspectives which are imcompatible to their mindsets. But env issues are complex and trans-disciplinary, exclusion of non-economic perspectives is just a ignorance of realities. Finally, policy may be misguided. And this partly contributes to the development of ecological economics, which takes philosophy, politics, economics, sociology...etc into account. If the mainstream economics is perfect, we don't need this.
In fact, in social science, there is a trend (actually a tradition) to move across disciplinary boundary. Sociology involves politics, econ is related to psycho, journalism to sociology and politics; geography almost covers all. And finally, all these are built upon philosophy. So, social scientists have no excuse to escape from other disciplines' inputs.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Politics of climate change: who jump first?
Now US and probably some other developed economies have an excuse to keep away from bounding to economic-destructive emission targets. The politics of climate change is inseperable from distributional justice. It sounds reasonable for those developed economies to do more because they benefited more and also directly contributed to the problem in the past. However, does it mean that their less developed counterparts should do less? Comparably tough emission targets seem unfair to them, but getting it looser for these rapidly growing economies means bigger burden for the next generations. It's intra- vs. inter-generational justice underlying the whole discourse. And it is unresolvable by presenting scientific evidence about the likelihood of global warming which can only provide some informational assistance. Now people are looking for a new set of philosophy that can match people's wishes better than the old ones - I mean economic objectives, or those in the second level of Maslow's hierarchy of needs.
Yet, there is still such a difficult question: Who jump first?
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富國與開發中國家將減碳寄望哥本哈根會議
(法新社) 07月 09日 星期三 06:20PM
（法新社北海道 洞爺湖九日電） 八大富有國家領袖在提出二零五零年前讓全球碳排放量至少減半的呼籲後，今天與中國和印度 等八個主要開發中國家領袖集會，希望說服他們參與這項減碳計劃，但是 雙方未能就如何落實減碳目標達成協議，只好將希望寄託在明年底於哥本哈根舉行的氣候變遷會議。
與會領袖在一項聲明中說：「氣候變遷是我們時代所面臨的最重大全球挑戰。我們的國家將繼續朝有建設性的方向攜手合作，以促使哥本哈根氣候變遷會議能夠成功。」
這些國家也利用這項在洞爺湖舉行的會議，討論如何控制不斷飆漲的石油和糧食價格。糧油價格飆漲已對全球經濟造成危害。
但是聲明中說，儘管主要開發中經濟體也會採取行動，僅有富國將落實他們自訂的減排目標。聲明中未提出任何減排數字。
聲明中也未納入日本 的一項提議。這項提議建議開發中國家同意以長期減排換取富國在較短期內採取行動。這是全球氣候變遷談判的主要癥結之一。
八大工業國昨天呼籲世界在二零五零年前讓碳排放量至少減半，並敦促開發中國家也能就此採取行動，但是開發中國家不接受這種沒有約束力的呼籲。
歐洲聯盟執行委員會主席巴洛索為高峰會的結果辯護。
他說：「從已開發國家與開發中國家對抗的角度看待此事，將是錯的離譜。當然，我們接受最大部份的責任，但是這是全球的挑戰，需要全球的回應。」
布希的國際經濟事務助理普賴斯，一如往常的稱讚今天這項由美國 發起的會議。
他表示：「各界普遍承認，讓這些國家齊聚一堂，嘗試找出共同點，是對聯合國 談判的巨大貢獻。」
巴西、中國、印度、墨西哥與南非這些被稱為「五國集團」的國家立刻予以回應，他們呼籲富國必須帶頭行動，因為從歷史的角度來看，富國應為氣候變遷負責。
南非環境部長范斯考維克告訴記者：「在美國改變主意之前，南非覺得五國集團很難向前推進。」
五國集團敦促富國以一九九零年的排放量為基準，在二零二零年前減排百分之二十五到百分之四十。但是八大工業國與布希立場一致，僅表示在京都議定書減排義務二零一二年屆滿時，八大工業國將會各自設定他們的中期減排目標。
世界自然基金會 的「全球氣候倡議」負責人卡斯滕森，指責富國企圖藉著指責開發中國家來拖延行動。
他表示：「有些富國迷失在策略中，似乎忘記了人類與自然的生存極度倚賴他們的領導。」
Yet, there is still such a difficult question: Who jump first?
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富國與開發中國家將減碳寄望哥本哈根會議
(法新社) 07月 09日 星期三 06:20PM
（法新社北海道 洞爺湖九日電） 八大富有國家領袖在提出二零五零年前讓全球碳排放量至少減半的呼籲後，今天與中國和印度 等八個主要開發中國家領袖集會，希望說服他們參與這項減碳計劃，但是 雙方未能就如何落實減碳目標達成協議，只好將希望寄託在明年底於哥本哈根舉行的氣候變遷會議。
與會領袖在一項聲明中說：「氣候變遷是我們時代所面臨的最重大全球挑戰。我們的國家將繼續朝有建設性的方向攜手合作，以促使哥本哈根氣候變遷會議能夠成功。」
這些國家也利用這項在洞爺湖舉行的會議，討論如何控制不斷飆漲的石油和糧食價格。糧油價格飆漲已對全球經濟造成危害。
但是聲明中說，儘管主要開發中經濟體也會採取行動，僅有富國將落實他們自訂的減排目標。聲明中未提出任何減排數字。
聲明中也未納入日本 的一項提議。這項提議建議開發中國家同意以長期減排換取富國在較短期內採取行動。這是全球氣候變遷談判的主要癥結之一。
八大工業國昨天呼籲世界在二零五零年前讓碳排放量至少減半，並敦促開發中國家也能就此採取行動，但是開發中國家不接受這種沒有約束力的呼籲。
歐洲聯盟執行委員會主席巴洛索為高峰會的結果辯護。
他說：「從已開發國家與開發中國家對抗的角度看待此事，將是錯的離譜。當然，我們接受最大部份的責任，但是這是全球的挑戰，需要全球的回應。」
布希的國際經濟事務助理普賴斯，一如往常的稱讚今天這項由美國 發起的會議。
他表示：「各界普遍承認，讓這些國家齊聚一堂，嘗試找出共同點，是對聯合國 談判的巨大貢獻。」
巴西、中國、印度、墨西哥與南非這些被稱為「五國集團」的國家立刻予以回應，他們呼籲富國必須帶頭行動，因為從歷史的角度來看，富國應為氣候變遷負責。
南非環境部長范斯考維克告訴記者：「在美國改變主意之前，南非覺得五國集團很難向前推進。」
五國集團敦促富國以一九九零年的排放量為基準，在二零二零年前減排百分之二十五到百分之四十。但是八大工業國與布希立場一致，僅表示在京都議定書減排義務二零一二年屆滿時，八大工業國將會各自設定他們的中期減排目標。
世界自然基金會 的「全球氣候倡議」負責人卡斯滕森，指責富國企圖藉著指責開發中國家來拖延行動。
他表示：「有些富國迷失在策略中，似乎忘記了人類與自然的生存極度倚賴他們的領導。」
Saturday, June 28, 2008
The limited scope of economics
A major problem of science is that scientists, including mainstream economists, limit their scope to their own disciplines only. They set up assumptions and build their arguments around these assumptions. They fail to see in the real world these assumptions are often not valid or the applicability is limited. Excluding ethical dimensions, for example, can make economic analysis 'manageable' and allows economists to claim themselves being 'scientific', and probably get a Nobel prize. But what happen if policymakers follow economists' advice without modifications? imposing social costs (Coarse theorem? hey, it fails when applying to intergenerational well-beings, and it would create political/ethical conflicts which is another types of social costs). So, when ecnomists say something as benefits > costs, they define the costs very narrowly. In the past it is ok, but now, the world has changed. Now people do not (or do not want to) define benefits and costs as a matter of utility only; collective well-beings are also included in their evaluation. Maximization of personal utility only is just an assumption that can no longer explain human behaviours very well. It is so obvious in psychology.
It also creates problems when economics is divorced from other disciplines like psychology. Human behaviours are not just determined by net utility gains, but right / wrong positions one holds. There is a range of motivations and the balance between utilitarian/deontological positions vary by individuals. Most importantly, it is misleading for economists to say everything is utility-based. It would be disastrous if policies are wholly based on such perspective. This is the way that our society operated in the past and present.
In fact, economics is not very objective indeed. For instance, as said, there are more human motivations than economists assume. Why do they make such assumptions? Some defend that non-utility motivations are just minority and can be ignored. Why should minority be ignored? When they do so, they are making a subjective judgement that it should be ignored. It 'should' be? No scientist is 100% objective. When economists and say social-conservationists evaluate the importance of an act, they simply weigh utilitarian and deontological positions to different degrees. They are doing the same thing but in different directions. Economics is just another school of philosophy, or as some ppl said, a kind of ethic (no 's'): utilitarian ethic. It is built upon an opposite position of deontology (utility vs. non-utility). It is not really a science from a theoretical point of view. (it does if being scientific means methodologically sophisticated, systemical & technical)
Mainstream economics is a closed intellectual system. Restricting to its own disciplinary boundary by claiming it as only a science is not really a strength but a source of those problems we face. Mainstream economists, it is time to open your eyes and listen to other disciplines. Pls do not take an incomplete understanding of reality as truth.
It also creates problems when economics is divorced from other disciplines like psychology. Human behaviours are not just determined by net utility gains, but right / wrong positions one holds. There is a range of motivations and the balance between utilitarian/deontological positions vary by individuals. Most importantly, it is misleading for economists to say everything is utility-based. It would be disastrous if policies are wholly based on such perspective. This is the way that our society operated in the past and present.
In fact, economics is not very objective indeed. For instance, as said, there are more human motivations than economists assume. Why do they make such assumptions? Some defend that non-utility motivations are just minority and can be ignored. Why should minority be ignored? When they do so, they are making a subjective judgement that it should be ignored. It 'should' be? No scientist is 100% objective. When economists and say social-conservationists evaluate the importance of an act, they simply weigh utilitarian and deontological positions to different degrees. They are doing the same thing but in different directions. Economics is just another school of philosophy, or as some ppl said, a kind of ethic (no 's'): utilitarian ethic. It is built upon an opposite position of deontology (utility vs. non-utility). It is not really a science from a theoretical point of view. (it does if being scientific means methodologically sophisticated, systemical & technical)
Mainstream economics is a closed intellectual system. Restricting to its own disciplinary boundary by claiming it as only a science is not really a strength but a source of those problems we face. Mainstream economists, it is time to open your eyes and listen to other disciplines. Pls do not take an incomplete understanding of reality as truth.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Chaning climate, changing value
Some researchers suggested that WTP reflects not only utility but also one's attitude. When paying for free trade coffee, which we know that it is no difference from those sold in supermarket, part of the WTP stems from our concerns to social injustice. It is an expression of our attitude towards the society. Likewise, boycotts against chained supermarket can be viewed as a kind of unwillingness to pay. It reflects our views about the role of state or the entreprise and probably a particular set of political beliefs (env problems as a result of free trade - liberalist ideology).
So, what is value? what is price? Obviously I pay for charitable flags not for utility reasons. Some defended that acqusition of moral satisfaction is also a kind of utility gains. Well...this is debetable. Can you use demand curve to predict moral satisfaction? Afriad not, evidence shows that it is scope-insensitive: price (in the form of stated WTP) sometimes remains unchanged, or change very little, as double amount of env goods are offered (so called 'embedding effect'). In fact, there are more evidence, like the refusal to make tradeoff (boycotts).
Some defended that those holding strong moral positions are minority. First, there are several categories of moral positions, some very strong (e.g. inviolable animal rights), some weak (change if livelihood is damaged). However, while the extreme one is minority, so does the strong utilitarian position (i.e. human first in any case). Most ppl are in the middle range - some moral, some utilitarian.
Economics grew in the age when ppl only concerned economic well-beings and therefore neoclassical theories worked well. In the past, human mainly looked at their own well-beings (who care black slaves?). Neoclassical theory was a perfect justification to the decision makers who strived to restore and expand their economies. But now, we add social and env justice in our agenda,we want to care about the socially deprived individuals and the future generations. In other words, we refuse to exclusively look at economic goals (except G.W. Bush and his followers). So the old schools simply fail to explain and inform the society which has changed a lot.
Modifying Clive's words: Climate is changing, preference is changing. Definition of value is also changing.
So, what is value? what is price? Obviously I pay for charitable flags not for utility reasons. Some defended that acqusition of moral satisfaction is also a kind of utility gains. Well...this is debetable. Can you use demand curve to predict moral satisfaction? Afriad not, evidence shows that it is scope-insensitive: price (in the form of stated WTP) sometimes remains unchanged, or change very little, as double amount of env goods are offered (so called 'embedding effect'). In fact, there are more evidence, like the refusal to make tradeoff (boycotts).
Some defended that those holding strong moral positions are minority. First, there are several categories of moral positions, some very strong (e.g. inviolable animal rights), some weak (change if livelihood is damaged). However, while the extreme one is minority, so does the strong utilitarian position (i.e. human first in any case). Most ppl are in the middle range - some moral, some utilitarian.
Economics grew in the age when ppl only concerned economic well-beings and therefore neoclassical theories worked well. In the past, human mainly looked at their own well-beings (who care black slaves?). Neoclassical theory was a perfect justification to the decision makers who strived to restore and expand their economies. But now, we add social and env justice in our agenda,we want to care about the socially deprived individuals and the future generations. In other words, we refuse to exclusively look at economic goals (except G.W. Bush and his followers). So the old schools simply fail to explain and inform the society which has changed a lot.
Modifying Clive's words: Climate is changing, preference is changing. Definition of value is also changing.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
My political beliefs
Below is a map showing my political beliefs (thanks John for the link). I am a centrist! Well...I think it is quite true. I was an advocate of neoclassical economics before I meet ecological economics. That's why I used, and am still using, Malthus and Darwin as my nickname here and elsewhere. They belong to the same origin - so to speak, the 'market-led' tradition of Adam Smith (Darwin's natural selection is essentially a market mechanism).
But I am changing my mind, as the map shows, from capitalist to socialist. Note that I agree with the principle of democracy but cautiously. In some sense, free market mechanisms resembles liberal democracy as they both involve aggregation of individual preference: one thru market, another voting. It is not very conducive to collective and long-term well-beings like environmental sustainability without a process of deliberation.
But I am changing my mind, as the map shows, from capitalist to socialist. Note that I agree with the principle of democracy but cautiously. In some sense, free market mechanisms resembles liberal democracy as they both involve aggregation of individual preference: one thru market, another voting. It is not very conducive to collective and long-term well-beings like environmental sustainability without a process of deliberation.
| You are a Social Liberal (61% permissive) and an... Economic Moderate (50% permissive) You are best described as a:
Link: The Politics Test on OkCupid.com: Free Online Dating Also : The OkCupid Dating Persona Test |
Website: http://www.okcupid.com/politics
Explanation Of Results
We wanted to get beyond the two catch-alls of American politics, the Democratic and Republican parties, and see where people actually stand. Parties can bring together people with marginally differing values and make collective action easier. But party platforms can misrepresent their constituents, and blind loyalty to a party can convince individuals to harbor inconsistent views.
The goal of this test was to exactly classify your personal politics, without the traditional labels. We avoided the edgy party issues and focused on fundamental values. Your score is a measure of what you believe in, economically and socially.
Higher permissiveness, on either axis, indicates a "live and let live" philosophy. Of course, we're almost conditioned in America, "Land of the Free", to think positively of such a philosophy. But practically speaking, permissiviness (or its opposite, regulation) can create any number of outcomes:
For example, on the economic axis, a highly permissive system, like the American system of the early 1900s, might mean things like low taxes and increased scientific innovation. It might also result, as it did back then, in unrestricted child labor and millions of poor people with black lung.
At the other end of the economic spectrum, a highly regulated system might conserve the environment, establish national health care, and eliminate poverty. But as we've learned from the Soviet system, extreme regulation can also lead to stagnation, sameness, and unhappiness. If you liked the test, forward it. Thanks for participating.
Monday, June 9, 2008
My second paper accepted
My second paper got accepted by a journal, 'Energy and Environment'. It is a Grade C journal though (my first publication is in a Grade lower-A/upper-B). Anyway it is pretty encouraging. The title of the paper is 'Achieving environmental goals in a competitive electricity market?: post-colonial Hong Kong, public choice and the role of government' It is expected to be published by the end of this year (December, hopefully).
As I have another paper rejected by a prestigious journal, now my record is 2/3 - submitted 3 with 2 accepted. Not bad!
As I have another paper rejected by a prestigious journal, now my record is 2/3 - submitted 3 with 2 accepted. Not bad!
Friday, June 6, 2008
My supervisor recruits PhDs
One of my prospective PhD supervisors, Prof. J. Dry_zek, is going to recruit PhD students on the politics of climate change with specific focus on China. I copy his message here and pls let me know if you are interested:
"I have recently received a large grant to set up a Centre for Deliberative Global Governance that will among other things have research programs in the global governance of climate change and deliberative democracy in China. I will have available several PhD scholarships, and one postdoctoral fellowship. So if you know of anyone who might be interested in these topics, please let me know."
"I have recently received a large grant to set up a Centre for Deliberative Global Governance that will among other things have research programs in the global governance of climate change and deliberative democracy in China. I will have available several PhD scholarships, and one postdoctoral fellowship. So if you know of anyone who might be interested in these topics, please let me know."
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Friday, May 16, 2008
PhD offer received!
Great, I've got the PhD offer from ANU! Now it's time to make a schedule.
I think I can finish the MPhil thesis by early September, and then spend two weeks with my GF as we will seperate for months (anyway I will come back 3-4 months later to do the oral defence for the MPhil). I will move to Australia in mid Sept, and register on 1 Oct (coz there is no PhD enrollment in Sept). Hopefully it is acceptable to Clive.
To an enthusiatic researcher there is nothing better than working with good school and good scholars in his field. And it is important that I don't have to pay the expensive international student fee and in fact being paid!
Australia, I'm coming!
I think I can finish the MPhil thesis by early September, and then spend two weeks with my GF as we will seperate for months (anyway I will come back 3-4 months later to do the oral defence for the MPhil). I will move to Australia in mid Sept, and register on 1 Oct (coz there is no PhD enrollment in Sept). Hopefully it is acceptable to Clive.
To an enthusiatic researcher there is nothing better than working with good school and good scholars in his field. And it is important that I don't have to pay the expensive international student fee and in fact being paid!
Australia, I'm coming!
Thursday, May 15, 2008
四川大地震
地震發生的時候，身處34樓的我也感覺到微微震動，以為是自己頭暈，但細看之下身後那扇門竟也在緩緩晃動，雖然當時不確定是否地震，但那一刻也有想果如果這楝樓真的塌下，我肯定粉身碎骨
死了上萬人，看見電視裡溫總的真情流露，再看看那猶如廢墟的四川各縣，實在叫人動容
大自然的破壞力不但只強而且難以預測，科學家致力用各種科技來提升其預測能力，有些更認為科技是抗衡自然災害的最佳辦法，把人類的將來寄託在科技之上便可以安枕無憂。但是比較緬甸風災和四川地震的救援工作，同樣是不發達地區，為什麼有如此重大的地分別? 即使他們有同等的技術水平，也不一定有同樣的抗/救災能力。決定先救哪些地方/對人民說些什麼安撫說話/如何安置死傷者等問題其實對整件事情至關重要。
自然災害也就是一個道德和社會問題，科技(包括經濟分析)怎麼可以排除這些因素? 以前有些科學家及經濟學常說道德不是他們的考慮因素，這分明是脫離現實
死了上萬人，看見電視裡溫總的真情流露，再看看那猶如廢墟的四川各縣，實在叫人動容
大自然的破壞力不但只強而且難以預測，科學家致力用各種科技來提升其預測能力，有些更認為科技是抗衡自然災害的最佳辦法，把人類的將來寄託在科技之上便可以安枕無憂。但是比較緬甸風災和四川地震的救援工作，同樣是不發達地區，為什麼有如此重大的地分別? 即使他們有同等的技術水平，也不一定有同樣的抗/救災能力。決定先救哪些地方/對人民說些什麼安撫說話/如何安置死傷者等問題其實對整件事情至關重要。
自然災害也就是一個道德和社會問題，科技(包括經濟分析)怎麼可以排除這些因素? 以前有些科學家及經濟學常說道德不是他們的考慮因素，這分明是脫離現實
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
奧運聖火
這是什麼香港? 什麼中國? 連和平示威的機會也沒有, 香港的自由去了哪裡?
大陸憤青, 我覺得你們很可悲, 你們可能連六四發生了什麼事也不知道? 毛澤東殺了多少人? 什麼是人權? 在了解一切前別盲目擁護, ....或許, 在內地根本不會有機會讓你了解個夠
中國的堀起和中國人的本性, 加上西方的敵對心態, 令身為中國人的我感到很不安
三十多年過去了, 為什麼還見不到思想上的進步??
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陳巧文展藏獨旗被圍攻 遭警強行抬走 擬投訴濫用武力 (明報) 05月 03日 星期六 05:05AM
【明報專訊】一直表示同情西藏人權狀的香港大學女生陳巧文，昨午在奧運火炬傳送之時展示關注人權的標語，以及代表藏獨的雪山獅子旗。但其抗議活動並不暢順，她昨晨於起步點附近的展示行動，
遭現場數百名內地學生、支持京奧人士辱罵和圍堵，又被警員武力阻止，其後警方以影響公眾秩序為由把她抬離現場。陳表示，會考慮投訴警方使用不必要的武力。
五星旗遮蓋雪山獅子旗
早在清晨6時許，穿上長褲及波鞋的陳巧文到達尖沙嘴 柏麗大道準備示威，與她相隔僅數米的一群科技大學內地生，多次在她接受海外傳媒訪問時，用五星旗阻擋她和遮蓋其雪山獅子旗；由網友自行組織的聖火護衛團亦曾率隊向陳示威，但在發起人張思晉勸喻後已離開。有護衛團成員表示，雙方只互相「眼超超」，並無衝突，在場警員亦沒有阻止。
男子圖施襲被警帶走
至10時許，陳和其他6名友人高舉雪山獅子旗向文化中心的火炬起點進發，即時遭到約百名京奧支持者包圍及以粗言辱罵，又被五星旗遮蔽標語和旗幟，部分京奧支持者情緒激動，咒罵聲震天，情開始混亂。在旁警員此時開始干預，分隔陳巧文一行人和京奧支持者，同時勸喻情緒激動者離開。其間一名男子企圖襲擊陳的友人，被警員抬走。
群情洶湧 陳拒離開被抬走
但混亂情一發不可收拾，沿途京運支持者不斷加入倒陳行列，警員逐組成人鏈，把陳巧文一行人送到警察防線後。陳在警察防線之後企圖舉起抗議標語，但遭警察談判專家劉達強箍頸壓低，劉其後勸喻陳離開，但陳堅決拒絕，劉於是高呼為陳巧文個人安全想，要把她抬走。
此時，數名男警緊握陳的雙臂拖走她，後來再轉由女警接力。陳被抬上警車時情緒激動及掙扎，最終被送往油麻地警署，在場京奧支持者即拍掌歡呼。警方高層人士解釋，陳巧文當時意願反覆：「陳小姐可能因年紀同熱心問題，初初想離開，後來又唔肯。」他又表示，當時群情洶湧，「未見過咁多人的情緒那麼高漲」。
中環 展旗幟未遇阻撓
陳巧文在警署逗留約1小時後離開，而企圖襲擊其友人的男子，基於當事人不追究，其後亦獲釋。陳巧文和友人下午再到中環繼續抗議，一行三人佔據香港會對開一街角，趁聖火車隊和火炬手范徐麗泰 經過時，展示雪山獅子旗和抗議中國人權差的標語。一行人其後再被京奧支持者截住去路，警方以保護安全為由，再把陳巧文及其男友送往西區警署。
對於早上被警方強行抬上警車，陳直言感到憤怒，認為警方並無兌現協助他們抗議的承諾。
警：為安全採取行動
警察公共關係科表示，昨上午兩批人於尖沙嘴發生糾紛，現場警務人員為保障雙方人身安全，即時將他們分隔。為避免糾紛進一步惡化而影響現場公眾秩序，故將10人帶返油麻地警署，他們經勸喻後已獲准離去。
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/080502/12/2te7j.html
大陸憤青, 我覺得你們很可悲, 你們可能連六四發生了什麼事也不知道? 毛澤東殺了多少人? 什麼是人權? 在了解一切前別盲目擁護, ....或許, 在內地根本不會有機會讓你了解個夠
中國的堀起和中國人的本性, 加上西方的敵對心態, 令身為中國人的我感到很不安
三十多年過去了, 為什麼還見不到思想上的進步??
*******************************************
陳巧文展藏獨旗被圍攻 遭警強行抬走 擬投訴濫用武力 (明報) 05月 03日 星期六 05:05AM
【明報專訊】一直表示同情西藏人權狀的香港大學女生陳巧文，昨午在奧運火炬傳送之時展示關注人權的標語，以及代表藏獨的雪山獅子旗。但其抗議活動並不暢順，她昨晨於起步點附近的展示行動，
遭現場數百名內地學生、支持京奧人士辱罵和圍堵，又被警員武力阻止，其後警方以影響公眾秩序為由把她抬離現場。陳表示，會考慮投訴警方使用不必要的武力。
五星旗遮蓋雪山獅子旗
早在清晨6時許，穿上長褲及波鞋的陳巧文到達尖沙嘴 柏麗大道準備示威，與她相隔僅數米的一群科技大學內地生，多次在她接受海外傳媒訪問時，用五星旗阻擋她和遮蓋其雪山獅子旗；由網友自行組織的聖火護衛團亦曾率隊向陳示威，但在發起人張思晉勸喻後已離開。有護衛團成員表示，雙方只互相「眼超超」，並無衝突，在場警員亦沒有阻止。
男子圖施襲被警帶走
至10時許，陳和其他6名友人高舉雪山獅子旗向文化中心的火炬起點進發，即時遭到約百名京奧支持者包圍及以粗言辱罵，又被五星旗遮蔽標語和旗幟，部分京奧支持者情緒激動，咒罵聲震天，情開始混亂。在旁警員此時開始干預，分隔陳巧文一行人和京奧支持者，同時勸喻情緒激動者離開。其間一名男子企圖襲擊陳的友人，被警員抬走。
群情洶湧 陳拒離開被抬走
但混亂情一發不可收拾，沿途京運支持者不斷加入倒陳行列，警員逐組成人鏈，把陳巧文一行人送到警察防線後。陳在警察防線之後企圖舉起抗議標語，但遭警察談判專家劉達強箍頸壓低，劉其後勸喻陳離開，但陳堅決拒絕，劉於是高呼為陳巧文個人安全想，要把她抬走。
此時，數名男警緊握陳的雙臂拖走她，後來再轉由女警接力。陳被抬上警車時情緒激動及掙扎，最終被送往油麻地警署，在場京奧支持者即拍掌歡呼。警方高層人士解釋，陳巧文當時意願反覆：「陳小姐可能因年紀同熱心問題，初初想離開，後來又唔肯。」他又表示，當時群情洶湧，「未見過咁多人的情緒那麼高漲」。
中環 展旗幟未遇阻撓
陳巧文在警署逗留約1小時後離開，而企圖襲擊其友人的男子，基於當事人不追究，其後亦獲釋。陳巧文和友人下午再到中環繼續抗議，一行三人佔據香港會對開一街角，趁聖火車隊和火炬手范徐麗泰 經過時，展示雪山獅子旗和抗議中國人權差的標語。一行人其後再被京奧支持者截住去路，警方以保護安全為由，再把陳巧文及其男友送往西區警署。
對於早上被警方強行抬上警車，陳直言感到憤怒，認為警方並無兌現協助他們抗議的承諾。
警：為安全採取行動
警察公共關係科表示，昨上午兩批人於尖沙嘴發生糾紛，現場警務人員為保障雙方人身安全，即時將他們分隔。為避免糾紛進一步惡化而影響現場公眾秩序，故將10人帶返油麻地警署，他們經勸喻後已獲准離去。
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/080502/12/2te7j.html
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Re: An invitation
Dont' be too happy! Today I forward the message to Clive. He quickly replied that it may have been sent to 'loads of people'(see below) who have published on a journal. While contributing to a book chapter is ok but don't take the request for book/journal ideas too serious. It's quite reasonable. Lets see if I can squeeze some time to rewrite my previous publications.
***********************************
Hi Alex,
The offer to publish a book chapter for a collected works volume is clearly related to the article you published. This could be OK but I would normally check the publisher and the person requesting my work. I would normally expect to know both. If I do not or cannot substantiate their credentials then I would leave it well alone. There are many speculative commercial entrepreneurs out there who send these things out.
The request for book ideas shows this is some standard form mailing they have sent out to loads of people. This is a basic request for a book proposal. Just ignore this as if you were about to publish a book you would send a proposal to several publishers and see who came back to you with the best offer, or select a good publisher who you felt would be best and then send them your proposal. I have never heard of Nova publishers. So ignore this they are just mailing loads of people who have published in Energy Policy.
On the chapter. This may be OK but also sounds a bit funny. See if you can substantiate who they are first. I suspect this may just be a waste of your time. You would be better writing-up things for journal articles through a standard peer review process.
By the way, book chapters are normally just accepted by the editor with no peer review but editorial feedback.
Clive
***********************************
Hi Alex,
The offer to publish a book chapter for a collected works volume is clearly related to the article you published. This could be OK but I would normally check the publisher and the person requesting my work. I would normally expect to know both. If I do not or cannot substantiate their credentials then I would leave it well alone. There are many speculative commercial entrepreneurs out there who send these things out.
The request for book ideas shows this is some standard form mailing they have sent out to loads of people. This is a basic request for a book proposal. Just ignore this as if you were about to publish a book you would send a proposal to several publishers and see who came back to you with the best offer, or select a good publisher who you felt would be best and then send them your proposal. I have never heard of Nova publishers. So ignore this they are just mailing loads of people who have published in Energy Policy.
On the chapter. This may be OK but also sounds a bit funny. See if you can substantiate who they are first. I suspect this may just be a waste of your time. You would be better writing-up things for journal articles through a standard peer review process.
By the way, book chapters are normally just accepted by the editor with no peer review but editorial feedback.
Clive
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
An invitation
Today I received an email from a publisher (see below). Actually it is an invitation for submitting a manuscript to be published in an edited book. I am also invited to throw out some ideas about publishing a stand-alone book or initiating an academic journal. That's interesting. I really want to see a journal of ecological economics for Asia/East Asia.
But I am extremely busy these few months. How can I do so many 'big' things within a short period of time?
**************************************
Dear Dr. Lo,
We have learned of your published research on energy policy. We would like to invite your participation in our publishing program. In particular, I have in mind a new research or review article for an edited collection (invitation only) being assembled under my direction tentatively entitled “Energy Policy: Economic Effects, Security Aspects and Environmental Issues.” The contributions for this edited book are intended to range from 4,000-35,000 words. If you are interested in participating, please consult the Notes for Contributors at the bottom of this letter.
Should your schedule not allow a full contribution at this time, we would welcome either a Commentary or Short Communication of 1,000-4,000 words.
The Commentary should deal with innovative ideas, developments, directions, misdirections, areas which need to be explored, future outlook, prior errors, problems, personnel, funding, or trends in the field which will be published separately under your name in a section titled Expert Commentary. The deadlines for the abstract for the Commentary and the full Commentary are the same as for regular articles. Please be sure to list the affiliations of the authors. References and figures are permitted without limitation.
Short Communications are also subject to the abstract requirement and submission guidelines and deadlines. References and figures are permitted without limitation.
Publication is about 6-9 months after the close of the volume. As soon as a book is listed on our website ( www.novapublishers.com), the codes in the status field are changed to indicate the production stages through publication.
We also invite you to consider serving as the editor of a new collected work under your own auspices (Book Idea Form is available) or by proposing a:
1. Research or review paper of 40,000 words or more for stand-alone
softcover book
2. New online or paper journal idea (open access – personal access free and no charge to publish)
3. Monograph ranging ideally from 70,000-150,000 words
4. Textbook (targeted adoption),
5. Custom publishing project
6. Lecture Notes for publication
7. Conference Proceedings (including Webinars)
We would welcome the opportunity of working with you.
I look forward to learning your thoughts on this idea.
Sincerely yours,
Frank Columbus
President and Editor-in-Chief
Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
400 Oser Avenue, Suite 1600
Hauppauge, NY 11788
Tel: 631- 231-7269
Fax: 631-231-8175
Mobile (direct): 631-741-2210
But I am extremely busy these few months. How can I do so many 'big' things within a short period of time?
**************************************
Dear Dr. Lo,
We have learned of your published research on energy policy. We would like to invite your participation in our publishing program. In particular, I have in mind a new research or review article for an edited collection (invitation only) being assembled under my direction tentatively entitled “Energy Policy: Economic Effects, Security Aspects and Environmental Issues.” The contributions for this edited book are intended to range from 4,000-35,000 words. If you are interested in participating, please consult the Notes for Contributors at the bottom of this letter.
Should your schedule not allow a full contribution at this time, we would welcome either a Commentary or Short Communication of 1,000-4,000 words.
The Commentary should deal with innovative ideas, developments, directions, misdirections, areas which need to be explored, future outlook, prior errors, problems, personnel, funding, or trends in the field which will be published separately under your name in a section titled Expert Commentary. The deadlines for the abstract for the Commentary and the full Commentary are the same as for regular articles. Please be sure to list the affiliations of the authors. References and figures are permitted without limitation.
Short Communications are also subject to the abstract requirement and submission guidelines and deadlines. References and figures are permitted without limitation.
Publication is about 6-9 months after the close of the volume. As soon as a book is listed on our website ( www.novapublishers.com), the codes in the status field are changed to indicate the production stages through publication.
We also invite you to consider serving as the editor of a new collected work under your own auspices (Book Idea Form is available) or by proposing a:
1. Research or review paper of 40,000 words or more for stand-alone
softcover book
2. New online or paper journal idea (open access – personal access free and no charge to publish)
3. Monograph ranging ideally from 70,000-150,000 words
4. Textbook (targeted adoption),
5. Custom publishing project
6. Lecture Notes for publication
7. Conference Proceedings (including Webinars)
We would welcome the opportunity of working with you.
I look forward to learning your thoughts on this idea.
Sincerely yours,
Frank Columbus
President and Editor-in-Chief
Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
400 Oser Avenue, Suite 1600
Hauppauge, NY 11788
Tel: 631- 231-7269
Fax: 631-231-8175
Mobile (direct): 631-741-2210
Friday, April 18, 2008
The presentation yesterday
Yesterday I gave a presentation on my project in the our departmental seminar. Quite successful. The audience (classmates and a few teachers) were astonished at my progress - while others present the methodology of their project I already got data and some analysis. It is just 8 months since I started my work. Althoug their response was very positive, I can still find rooms for improvement, like the amount of information. My supervisor gave me quite positve comments, except my 'informative' powerpoint that made people difficult to get my message. It is because I put too much information on every slide and moved too fast, there was not enough time for people to digest. It was too detailed in some sections, and too complext for those who know little about this field. And I agreed, it looked a bit messy comparing to the first presenter (I was the second). Obviously I need to make a lot of changes before I give a much shorter presentation next Saturaday.
Friday, April 11, 2008
My IELTS result
my IELTS released:
Listening 7.5
Reading 8.5
Writing 6.5
Speaking 6.5
Overall Band 7.5
A few months ago I took the General Training module while this time Academic module. They are only slightly different in Reading and Writing.
Last time I got 7.0, 8.5, 6.5 and 7.0 respectively. This proves that my Writing and Speaking is still weak - perhaps I am not good at 'expressing' my ideas (Yes, I am, even using Chinese, but it is fairly important for an academic because we often need to write and present our findings!)
Listening 7.5
Reading 8.5
Writing 6.5
Speaking 6.5
Overall Band 7.5
A few months ago I took the General Training module while this time Academic module. They are only slightly different in Reading and Writing.
Last time I got 7.0, 8.5, 6.5 and 7.0 respectively. This proves that my Writing and Speaking is still weak - perhaps I am not good at 'expressing' my ideas (Yes, I am, even using Chinese, but it is fairly important for an academic because we often need to write and present our findings!)
Monday, April 7, 2008
Preparing for my PhD (3)
Now I have a chance to get my MPhil thesis finished before moving to Australia to do the PhD.
Last month when I talked to my MPhil supervisor I was told that I have to quit (asap) the MPhil programme if I decide to accept this PhD scholarship offer. But I met him last week. Because I have already completed data collection for my project, he suggested me to raise a special request (via him) to the HKU Graduate School for submitting the thesis earlier, i.e. early September 08 (about one year earlier than normal case). After submitting the thesis I can go Australia immediately (but have to go back HK to do an oral defence at the end of 2008). That means if I can work hard (very hard indeed!), I can get the MPhil degree while doing the PhD.
My prospective supervisor who gives me the PhD scholarship offer agreed this in principle. I promise him to complete the thesis within next five months. It's hard but not impossible to me.
So, starting from today, I will keep working and reduce sleepign tmie to no more than six hours every day except holiday. Let see if I can break our department's record!
Last month when I talked to my MPhil supervisor I was told that I have to quit (asap) the MPhil programme if I decide to accept this PhD scholarship offer. But I met him last week. Because I have already completed data collection for my project, he suggested me to raise a special request (via him) to the HKU Graduate School for submitting the thesis earlier, i.e. early September 08 (about one year earlier than normal case). After submitting the thesis I can go Australia immediately (but have to go back HK to do an oral defence at the end of 2008). That means if I can work hard (very hard indeed!), I can get the MPhil degree while doing the PhD.
My prospective supervisor who gives me the PhD scholarship offer agreed this in principle. I promise him to complete the thesis within next five months. It's hard but not impossible to me.
So, starting from today, I will keep working and reduce sleepign tmie to no more than six hours every day except holiday. Let see if I can break our department's record!
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